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Which Digital Shelf Lever Actually Moves the Needle? Now Henkel Knows.

Henkel Consumer Brands needed to understand which digital shelf levers actually drive sales — and by how much. Nandu built a machine learning model that turned gut feeling into data-driven investment decisions.

Budget Clarity
Data-driven allocation
What-If
Impact simulation
KPI Ranked
Drivers quantified

About Henkel

Henkel is a global leader in consumer brands and industrial technologies, operating in 80+ countries with brands like Persil, Schwarzkopf, and Loctite.

Henkel digital shelf prediction — observed sales vs model prediction over time
The model gave us what we've been looking for — a data-driven way to prioritise our Perfect Digital Store investments. For the first time, we can see which levers actually move the needle.
BR
Boris Rütten
Head of Global eCommerce, Henkel Consumer Brands, Henkel

The Challenge

Henkel's Perfect Digital Store strategy spans thousands of SKUs across multiple Amazon markets. The team optimises availability, visibility, and brand experience — but had no way to quantify which lever contributes most to sales. Investment decisions were based on experience rather than evidence. Correlations were visible, but causation was unclear. Delayed effects (e.g. out-of-stock impacting sales weeks later) and diminishing returns made the picture even harder to read.

No way to quantify the sales contribution of each digital shelf pillar
Investment decisions based on experience rather than evidence
Delayed effects and diminishing returns invisible in standard reporting
Correlations visible but causation unclear — traditional analytics not enough

The Solution

Nandu built a Bayesian Marketing Mix Model on manufacturer-level Amazon data, combining internal digital shelf KPIs with external market factors.

Bayesian regression with saturation and carryover effects to model real-world marketing dynamics
Lag analysis to capture delayed effects — e.g. out-of-stock impacts with a multi-week delay
Diminishing returns modeled for Share of Search to optimise spend allocation
Sales contribution decomposition by pillar: Availability, Visibility, Experience
What-if simulations for scenario planning and budget optimisation
Data sources connected
Amazon Seller/Vendor dataDigital Shelf KPIs (Availability, Visibility, Experience)Share of Search (Organic + Paid)External market factors
Timeline: 8 weeks from kick-off to production model

The Results

Budget Clarity
Better Allocation

For the first time, Henkel can allocate digital shelf investments based on quantified sales impact — not intuition.

Impact Simulation
What-If Scenarios

The model enables scenario planning: what happens to sales if we improve availability by 5%? If we shift budget from paid to organic search?

KPI Relevance
Correlations Quantified

Must-Have SKUs and Ratings & Reviews identified as strongest sales drivers. Organic search outperforms paid in contribution — reshaping priorities.

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